Tuesday, 24 March 2009

The South Sea Bubble





‘People of Betica, you think yourselves rich, because you have silver and gold! I pity your error. Be ruled by me: leave the land of the base metals; come into the empire of the imagination, and I promise you riches which astonish even you.’ ‘People of Betica, would you be rich? Imagine that I am very rich, and that you are very rich: get yourselves into the belief every morning that your fortune has been doubled during the night: rise, then, and if you have any creditors, go and pay them with what you have imagined, and tell them to imagine in their turn.’
‘People of Betica, I perceive that your imagination is weaker than it was a day or two ago; try to bring it up to the strength of mine: I will place before you every morning a bill, which will be the source of wealth for you: you will see only four words,4 but they will be of the highest significance, as they will settle the portions of your wives, the fortunes of your children, and the number of your domestics.'

‘People of Betica, I counselled you to imagine, but you have not done so: well then, I now command you to imagine.... I understand that some of you are odious enough to keep your gold and silver. For the silver, let it go: but the gold…the gold…Ah! That stirs my anger!…I swear, by my sacred windbags, that if you do not bring it to me, I will inflict dire punishment upon you ... Do you think it is to keep these wretched metals that I ask them from you? A proof of my good faith is, that when you brought me them some days ago, I gave you back at once one half.’


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Montesquieu

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  In The Persian Letters, Montesquieu satirizes many aspects of the society of the day. The exert aboves refers to the incredible episode of French history where a Scotsman, John Law, gained unprecedented control over the French economy and nearly brought about its ruin. Montesquieu mocks Law for the way that he tried to replace gold with paper money but in many ways Law was a remarkable man. He had a gift for analyzing complex issues of economics and elaborating them in simple terms. He was a self styled financial Copernicus, aiming to turn the economic world upside down by insisting that money wasn't valuable as it was made from silver, but silver was valuable as people choose to use it for money. He was disinterested in the material used to coin money, far more concerned with its actual function, in his own words:"Money is not the value for which Goods are exchanged, but the Value by which they are exchanged: The use of Money is to buy Goods"

  Crucially, he was the son of an Edinburgh goldsmith and realized the significance of paper credit but his schemes went far further than the lending of his father's firm. He wanted to convert the whole economy to running on paper money that was produced by a national bank. First he had tried to convince the Scottish Parliament of the scheme but to no avail. He was outlawed from England as he had killed a man in due,l so he hawked his plans around the whole of Europe whilst he earned a extremely handsome living from gambling. After rejections in Holland, Austria and various states in Italy, he incredibly managed to persuade the French Regent, the Duke d'Orléans that he could revive the moribund French economy.

  Initially, Law was astonishingly successful. His Banque Générale Privée, the first bank to ever issue promissory notes in France had more powers than the Bank of England, not only could it issue notes, but it also had branches all over the country. Coins could be deposited in Paris and orders sent to issue notes in Marseilles or vice versa for almost no charge. The next year, Law acquired a controlling interest in the Mississippi Company that had a monopoly on trade with France's North American colonies. his new venture began to accumulate other trading concessions. It absorbed the Compagnie des Indes Orientales, Compagnie de Chine and other rivals to form the Compagnie Perpetuelle des Indes (1719) with a monopoly of commerce on all the seas. Not only was it monopolizing foreign trade, it also assumed state functions when it took over the Royal Mint and the French Tax farms.

  The Banque Générale Privée had become major commercial success, so much that the Regent wanted to turn it into a state run enterprise and wound up the private company leaving its shareholders with substantial profits. Law still controlled the Banque Royal, issuing notes with the King's seal of approval. As well as controlling these two great institutions, Law also acted in a personal capacity to raise the price of shares by offering to buy shares in the future at high price. His position was a stock jobber's dream as he controlled future injections of credit into the market.. He offered deals that looked ridiculous but his influence was so great that it was easy to stock job the prices upwards.

  In 1719, he announced that the Compagnie des Indes Orientales was to engraft the whole of the French National Debt and only charge the governmente 3% interest. It was an absurdly ambitious plan but Law was certainly no fool, he realized that there was no point simply creating huge amounts of credit to inflate a bubble. He had to shake up the French economy too so there would be real growth too. He planned an ambitious programme of public works centred on canals, bridges and roads. He wished to consolidate all taxes into a single levy on property and remarkably for aristocratic France, no exemptions for privilege. In conjunction he envisioned a national network of almshouses for the poor and that clergy should give their uncultivated land to peasants. He wanted to free the grain market of restraints and reduce tolls and tariffs. His seventeenth century shock therapy was designed to sweep away the restrictions of feudalism and convert France into a nation of traders. Law's plan for France was as revolutionary as any hatched by Danton, Robespierre or Napoleon.

  As the share price of the Compagnie des Indes Orientales soared, Law became the talk of Europe and thousands flocked to Paris to share in the gains. Many went home dreaming of similar schemes, the South Sea Company proposed to launch a similar operation to purchase nearly the whole of Britain's national debt. Their great rival, the Bank of England countered with a similar offer so Parliament had two proposals for engrafting £31.6 million pounds of public debt. Both schemes were based around the idea of of creating £31.6 million worth of new shares, and then boosting their price so that they could swap the shares for debt and make a profit.

  The Bank of England had a particular incentive for a massive expansion. . Under its charter, note issue was only restricted by the amount of its capital. The economist H.D. Macleod later questioned the sense of this arrangement.;

  "If for every debt the Government incurs an equal amount of money is to be created, why, here we have the philosopher's stone at once. What is the long sought Eldorado compared to this? Even there the gold required to be picked up and fashioned into coin."

  Undoubtedly, if the South Sea Company were to win, they would have used their influence to usurp the Bank's position. Why sail the South Seas for gold to coin into money, when it could be created by the movement of pen upon paper? The stakes were high and a bidding war started to see who could provide the government with the highest sweetener for the deal. The South Sea Company had originally proposed a one off payment to the government of £3.5 million, the Bank countered by upping the ante by two million, the Company responded by matching that and adding another two million to make an offer of £7.5 million.

  The South Sea Company also outbid the bank in bribery. The company's cashier Robert Knight began selling shares from an issue that was yet to occur to people who had no money to pay for them. He simply entered the names of MPs into a green book along with number of shares and an agreed price. All the recepients of this benevolence had to do was wait until the price had risen, then sell them back to the company and receive the increase as profit. Unsurpisingly, they won Parliament around to their plans and equally unsurpisingly the price of their stock started to rise.

  The bill's path through Parliament was rapid. It was first read on March 23rd and passed for the third time by 172 to 55 votes on April 2nd. It was left to the Lords to point out the flaws in the scheme. Lord North and Grey articulated familiar fears about perfidious stock jobbers diverting the 'the genius of the people' from honest labour. Lord Cowper termed the scheme a Trojan horse that was not fit for purpose as the company's profits would add to the national debt. The Duke of Wharton aired concerns that its power "might endanger the liberties of the nation".  

  There were few other voices of opposition but Knight had many Lords registered in his green book and the bill passed by 83 votes to 17. When the King, who was the Governor of the South Sea Company, signed the act on the 7th April, the stock had nearly trebled in just three months. The company argued that the unsold stock had trebled in valued too, so the initial £31.6 million worth of shares was now worth around one hundred million. Accordingly, they proposed to swap 100 shares for every £375 of government debt. Initially most holders were not impressed by the offer, but Blunt had another cunning move to shift the market. He offered to sell shares to allcomers on very easy credit terms even before debt holders had a chance to exchange. Knight's trick worked a treat within a week the price had risen to £495, the offer to bond holders began to look generous and large amounts of them began to accept .

  As the South Sea Bubble rose, across the channel, the Mississippi bubble was about to burst. Law had underestimated his ability to control the price of stock. He believed that he could take it to where he needed it to be then steady it. Instead, it vastly overshot and stock holders had to decide whether they shared Law's vision of brave new world or make a quick killing. Early in 1720, the Prince de Conti, demanded payment for his notes and sent three wagons to collect his silver and gold. The Regent persuaded him to re-invest a considerable proportion; others less connected with the future of France were getting into gold and getting it into England. As his system collapsed around him, the great liberal reformer called for draconian actions. He talked the Regent into declaring a law against carrying more than five hundred livres in silver, worse still informers were allowed hefty share of the hoards. Law tried more and more desperate measure to avert disaster but to no avail.

  At the end of the fiasco, the bank had been merged with the company so in effect people were borrowing from the same institution that created it in order to purchase its shares. Millions of French were confused by the events. Later at the end of the century, Sir Steuart Denham succinctly summarized the whole sorry episode

"As long as the credit of this bank subsisted, it appeared to the French to be perfectly solid. The
bubble no sooner burst, than the whole nation was thrown into astonishment and consternation. Nobody could conceive from whence the credit had sprung; what had created such mountains of wealth in so short a time; and by what witchcraft and fascination it had. been made to appear in an instant"

  Like Law, Blunt had achieved his aims but couldn't control what happened next, speculative fever was out of hand and more money was flowing in from France. The South Sea was not the only company on the stock market thats value was increasing rapidly. Joint stocks became fashionable, popular at the time were packs of playing cards, each depicting a different bubble with an appropriate verse underneath. One of the most notorious bubbles was "Puckle's Machine Company, "for discharging round and square cannon-balls and bullets, and making a total revolution in the art of war. 

Its pretensions were summed up on the eight of spades: 

A rare invention to destroy the crowd 
Of fools at home, instead of fools abroad. 
Fear not, my friends, this terrible machine, 
They're only wounded who have shares therein. 

The nine of hearts was a caricature of the English Copper and Brass Company, with the following verse: 

The headlong fool that wants to be a swopper 
Of gold and silver coin for English copper, 
May, in Change Alley, prove himself an ass, 
And give rich metal for adulterate brass.

  A hand bill was even circulated "For carrying-on an undertaking of great advantage but no-one to know what it is!!" that was probably satire but it was difficult to tell. More seriously, the total money proposed for all of the bubble projects was more than £300 million, more than the value of all the land in England and far more than the amount of cash circulating. As joint stocks mimicked the South Sea Company, private banks mimicked the Sword Blade. They issued promissory notes, lent them to customers to buy stock that instantly produced enough profit to cover the cost of the loan. As long as they were willing to do this then bubble swould keep rising, as long as the bubble kept rising the illusion of profit maintained. It was stockjobbers economy, the South Sea and other bubbles had become pyramid schemes that constantly needed new buyers of stock.

  The South Sea Company saw the other bubbles as rivals for funds and pulled in a few favours to dampen them. On June 9th, Parliament passed the Royal Exchange and London Assurance Corporation Act, ever after known as the Bubble Act that required all joint stock companies to have a Royal Charter. It also required that companies stick rigidly to their declared purposes, a ruling that was not rigidly applied to the Company that was meant to be trading in the South Seas. The immediate impact was to suppress rival bubbles to the South Sea and its shares leapt even higher to £890 in early June.

  On the 15th June another tranche of shares was issued with a staggering 80% of the issue reserved for exclusive customers. The list contained the entire board of the East India Company, half the House of Lords, over half the House of Commons, numerous foreign dignitaries and many members of the royal family. King George who was believe to be subscribing under a disguised name honoured Blunt as a Baronet for his "extraordinary services in raising public credit to a height not known before". Over the summer there were no official sales but in the cafes of exchange alley the price was slowly slipping from its peak of over one thousand pounds.. The Company had little funds to attempt further manipulations and payment was due on stock bought on credit. Stock holders could not pay for their shares other than by selling them and the smart money was moving abroad to Amsterdam and Hamburg. Charles Stanhope, Secretary to the Treasury and one of the first names in the green Book, collected Sword Blade notes totally almost a quarter of million pounds, there were even rumours that Blunt and other company directors had sold out.

  In September, the Sword Blade Bank was having difficulty honouring payments on its notes and a run started on the nineteenth and customers were slowly paid in small change. This only served to unease nerves, the panic was contagious and customers of other private bank began to demand cahs for their notes. The run even hit the Bank of England who resorted to the tactic of planting employees in the queues who were paid in sixpences that they returned through the back door. The Sword Blade collapsed on the 24th other banks followed although the Bank of England managed to stay solvent. Once there was no more credit available, the share price of the South Sea Company utterly collapsed.


  Speaking of the collapse of credit in the House of Commons, Thomas Broderick M.P.declared ” They have stretched credit so far beyond what it would bear, that specie proves insufficient to support it. Their most considerable men have drawn out, securing themselves by the losses of the deluded, thoughtless numbers, whose understandings have been overruled by avarice and the hopes of making mountains out of molehills. Thousands of families will be reduced to beggary ... A great many goldsmiths have already run off, and more will daily. I question whether one-third, nay one-fourth, of them can stand it. From the beginning, I founded my judgement of the whole affair upon the questionable maxim, that ten millions (which is more than our running cash) could not circulate two hundred millions, beyond which our paper credit extended."

  In the boom there had been credit for every kind of silliness, suddenly there was none for essential trade, houses were left half built, ships empty and livestock strnaded. There was also an immense political scandal. The King had been the Governor of the bank, hundreds of MPs had been in Knight's green book, and nearly the whole political elite were culpable. Nearly all were saved as Knight took responsibility for the dubious methods used to obtain the support of politicians but refused to name them. In a tit for tat deal, officaldom turned a blind eye as he fled to the Antwerp.


  Although a resolution was proposed in parliament that bankers be tied up in sacks filled with snakes and hurled into the Thames, the Government had enough problems without embarassing recriminations. Robert Walpole who had became Chancellor of Exchequer divided the stock of the South Sea Company between the Bank of England and the East India Company and created a sinking fund to repay debt. He also arranged that no single institution would ever again hold the whole of the national debt. The Bank of England continued to hold some debt but its main role was an agent that brokered sales meaning that The British Government would enjoy a far wider base of creditors.


The Bank of England



"Of all institutions in the world the Bank of England is now probably the most remote from party politics and from 'financing.' But in its origin it was not only a finance company, but a Whig finance company. It was founded by a Whig Government because it was in desperate want of money, and supported by the 'City' because the 'City' was Whig. Very briefly, the story was this. The Government of Charles II. (under the Cabal Ministry) had brought the credit of the English State to the lowest possible point. It had perpetrated one of those monstrous frauds, which are likewise gross blunders. The goldsmiths, who then carried on upon a trifling scale what we should now call banking, used to deposit their reserve of treasure in the 'Exchequer,' with the sanction and under the care of the Government. In many European countries the credit of the State had been so much better than any other credit, that it had been used to strengthen the beginnings of banking. The credit of the state had been so used in England: though there had lately been a civil war and several revolutions, the honesty of the English Government was trusted implicitly. But Charles II. showed that it was trusted undeservedly. He shut up the 'Exchequer,' would pay no one, and so the 'goldsmiths' were ruined. 


  The credit of the Stuart Government never recovered from this monstrous robbery, and the Government created by the Revolution of 1688 could hardly expect to be more trusted with money than its predecessor. A Government created by a revolution hardly ever is. There is a taint of violence which capitalists dread instinctively, and there is always a rational apprehension that the Government which one revolution thought fit to set up another revolution may think fit to pull down. In 1694, the credit of William III's Government was so low in London that it was impossible for it to borrow any large sum; and the evil was the greater, because in consequence of the French war the financial straits of the Government were extreme. At last a scheme was hit upon which would relieve their necessities. 'The plan was that twelve hundred thousand pounds should be raised at what was then considered as the moderate rate of 8 per cent.' In order to induce the subscribers to advance the money promptly on terms so unfavourable to the public, the subscribers were to be incorporated by the name of the Governor and Company of the Bank of England. They were so incorporated, and the 1,200,000l. was obtained."

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Thomas Babington Macaulay

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  In 1682, the Economist William Petty asked a rhetorical question in his splendidly titled book Quantulumcunque Concerning Money. "What remedy is there if we have too little Money? Answer We must erect a Bank, which well computed, doth almost double the effect of our coined Money: And we have in England Materials for a Bank which shall furnish Stock enough to drive the Trade of the whole Commercial World." Prophetic words but at the time the practicalities complicated the issue. Aristocrats thought that a state bank with the power to create imaginary gold would give power to merchants and be a step closer to republic. Conversely many merchants admired the banks of Venice, Genoa and particularly Amsterdam, but they wouldn't trust Charles II anywhere near one so whilst he reigned the questioned remained academic. They trusted his brother and successor James II even less and their sentiment was shared by many of their countrymen who welcomed an invasion by William of Orange, the stadtholder of the Netherlands.

  William's own political position was precarious, he had long been at war with Louis XIV of France who supported James's claim to the English throne. He needed money to fight this war but Parliament had grown wary of Kings demands for money. They only agreed to sanction William as King on the condition that they controlled the nations finances. No new taxes could be raised without their approval. William was forced to look for other means to fight his war that promised to be the most expensive that England had ever fought. First he turned to London's goldsmiths who were keener on William than his predecessors and bought substantial amounts of government securities, known as tallies, but they could not provide the volume of loans required.

  A Scottish Entrepreneur William Paterson had been persuading many businessmen that pooling resources, both cash and goodwill, into one big bank would be the best way to lend to the King. If they bonded together, it would give them more security from default and they could create an enterprise that would dwarf the existing London goldsmiths. aftera few years wrangling, his application was succesful, so in 1694, the Whig Chancellor Charles Montague chartered a privately owned Bank of England as a joint stock corporation. The Bank was to raise the sum of £1,200,000 but although the subscription quickly sold out it only ever raised £750, 000. It still however forwarded the full amount of £1, 200, 000 to the Government. It was operating in the exact same manner as Goldsmiths but on a larger scale. As long as customers trusted the Bank, it could create the short fall of £470, 000 simply by printing the notes. One of its biographers succinctly explained the operations of the bank

 "it never pretended to take the deposit for any other purpose than that of trading with it. It never professed to make its issues square exactly with its coin and bullion, though, of course, it made its liabilities square with its assets, It coined .. its own credit into money"

  The bank was obviously aided by having the Government as its main customer but joint stock status was also crucial to the bank's success. It give the bank a wide base of wealthy supporters with their own businesses and customers. Also if stockholders were short of ready cash, they could sell their stock on London's burgeoning stock market. In the 1690s, there were over one hundred joint stock companies whose shares were traded in Exchange Alley, close to Lombard Street. These were informal places where anyone with any interest in buying and selling shares could meet colleagues, do business and hear the latest news. Despite its evident popularity, the stock trade had developed a rather unsavoury reputation, the term ‘stockjobber’was used largely ‘pejoratively in the seventeenth century. Samuel Johnson's dictionary defined a stock-jobber as "a low wretch who makes money by buying and selling shares in the funds." Daniel Defoe wrote an essay titled, "The Villainy of Stock Jobbers Detected." Even a Government commision expressed disaproval when they said that stockjobbers sold worthless stock to "ignorant men, drawn in by the reputation, falsely raised and artfully spread, concerning the thriving state of their stock".

  Stockjobbers were unpopular as they manipulated markets, they preyed on those less savvy and streetwise than themselves. They bought stock then exagerated stories of certain companies success, they placed stories in London's many newspapers, whispered rumours in the coffee houses of exchange alley then looked around for gullible new faces who may believe them. If they could find enough to create momentum, they would wait until prices had risen enough, then sell up and make a killing. Goldsmiths had always been the natural allies of stockjobbers, they could issue promissory notes that could be used to buy up stock at a low price and then once the stock had been resold, the debt could be cleared. Yet the goldsmiths' business was under threat by the new bank so they tried to save their necks by tring a few tricks of their own.. Initially, they had attempted to undermine it by refusing to accept its notes but the non-cooperation had little effect, the bank could not be ignored. So, they changed tack and stockpiled notes and at an opportune moment when they knew cash supplies would be in short supply, they tried to cash them all at once. The predatory run failed as the Bank simply ignored those it suspected of mischief but paid paid favoured customers.

  The tactic backfired as the Bank presented a case to the Government that competition was bad for banking as a whole . It simply argued that if goldsmiths and the bank were cutting ech others throats then nobody would have money to lend to the Government. If predatory runs like that initiated by the goldsmiths become the norm then nobody would have the courage to print promissory notes. The Bank used the furore to argue for a monoply as this letter written by a "Member of the said Corporation" elicits that "competition causes distrust and contracts credit instead of enlarging it. The Bank, to be useful to the State, must be the general repository of cash for all the inhabitants of London."

  Until then, the Government had been keen on encouraging rivals to the bank. It had received a proposition from a Doctor Chamberlain for a land bank that would issue money backed by the value of land. The proposal generated interest amonst many enemies of the Bank of England, particularly the land owning aristiocracy. However, after only a few months, Doctor Chamberlain's scheme proved to be flawed when he could not raise anything near the two million pounds that he had promised. It seemed that whatever challenge the Bank faced only made it its case stronger.

  The government was facing problems with its other sources of revenue. It could not sell any more tallies to goldsmiths and the price of existing tallies had slumped. The Bank knew that many of the tally holders of debt would agree to swap it for a chance to be part of a corporation that had influence in government and as many of them were goldsmiths it could bring rivals on board. So in a deal that seemed to suit everyone, the Bank agreed to engraft the government debt into its corporation by offering to exchane freshly created bank stock for tallies. The Government however had one condition, the bank had to pay not the current market price but the original price that was less than 80%

  To compensate, the bank hatched a novel plan. It would accept government debt in payment for 80% of the new stock but its own notes for the other 20%. Thus it would be efectively writing out credit notes for people to purchase its own stock which had the effect of artifically inflating the value of the company. The Bank was jobbing the price of its own stock upwards. Bank directors also used the inside knowledge to privately purchase government debt before the engraftment operation proceeded thus guaranteeing themselves a substantial profit.

The Government was nevertheless pleased with the engraftment of its debt, Parliament drafted a new charter (1697) for the bank including this clause.  

  "During the continuance of the corporation of the Governor and Company of the Bank of England, no other Bank or any corporation, society, fellowship, company or constitution in the nature of a bank shall be erected, established, permitted, suffered, countenanced, or allowed by Act of Parliament within this Kingdom"

The Charter granted many other benefits to the bank, if for any reason, the Bank could not redeem its notes then the Exchequer would honour the debt. It meant that although its notes were not actually legal tender, they were not fully backed by the Government. The Bank was on the way to becoming an integral part of the British establishment. It provided financial services to Government departments, it organized pay and provision for foreign wars, lent to allies and would even finance the union between England and Scotland in 1707. Jonathan Swift claimed that the whole purpose of the debt was to "fasten wealthy people to the New Government".

  Despite, this enhanced status and the privileges the bank enjoyed, it could not manage to destroy all its rivals. The bank's charter banned other banks but it did not contain a pracise definition of banking. Many other joint stock companies like the East India Company issued promissory notes as it believed they could offer promises to pay without actually being bank. Less scrupulous businessmen sought out corporations to use the legal protection of incorporation to issue promissory notes. In 1691, a goldsmith by the name of Sir Stephen Evance received a charter of incorporation as the Governor and company for Making Hollow Sword Blades in the North of England. He hired some Huguenot sword makers and built forges in County Durham but continued his Goldsmith business through the new legal entity. By the 1700s, the swordmaking was floundering and another group of goldsmiths had purchased the Sword Blade company as shell for other activities. Sir John Blunt and his partners transformed it into a finance company to rival the Bank of England.


  Blunt had noted how the Bank of England had engrafted the huge amount of Government debt into its own stock and realised that that huge companies could come into existencealmost out of nowhere. The Sword Blade mimicked the Bank of England's engraftment operations, it created fresh stock in the company and exchanged it for government debt. Blunt also saw how a few individuals could manipulate joint stock companies for their own benefit. He and his associates also repeated the actions of the banks directors, they purchased debt privately and sold it on at profit to their own company and also offered credit to others who wished to purchase. It was a subtle metho of robbing their own company. The Sword Blade Company had stockjobbing down to a fine art. Daniel Defoe noted its strength in Exchange Alley, where it had the nickname "the City's pawnbroker" and poignantly predicted that "these men men with a mass of money, which they command of other people's as well as their own, will in time ruin the jobbing trade".

  The Bank of England was not keen on anyone copying their tricks whether fair or foul and tried but failed with legal action to eliminate its competitor. When its charter was up for renewal it managed to gain another clause banning any other joint stock company issuing promissory notes. Yet, once again, the Bank's rivals refused to die, as private banks were permited to operate as long as they had no more than six partners. They could also informally combine with joint stock companies to create syndicates of considerable power. Two of Blunt's associates Caswall and Mount formed a private partnership that assumed the Sword Blade's name and custom.

  In 1710, a general election returned a new government that had inherited the debts that had accumulated over the previous twenty years. During the war with France, the Royal Navy had paid its sailors with tickets instead of money on the promise that they would be redeemed at some point in the future. As this moment was long in arriving, sailors were frequently reduced to selling these tickets for half their face value. In this manner, Parliament had accumulated nine million pounds worth of debt that it could not account for by taxes or other means. The new government was not well disposed towards the Bank of England. Instead, it incorporated a new company that was controlled by the Sword Blade syndicate. It was known as The South Sea Company but contrary to its grandoise name, it conducted almost no trade in the South Seas. It did however manage to engraft nine million pounds of government debt into its own stock. It may have only sent a solitary ship to South America to trade every year but it held more Government debt than the Bank of England. Nine years later it was to embark upon an even bolder project that would make its name ever notorious.

Monday, 23 March 2009

Keepers of Running Cash


"What, then is the mystery of banking?"

  Centuries ago the Lombard goldsmiths made the discovery which is commemorated in London today by the title of Lombard Street, a first rate city address. In their days people who had a good deal of spare money, and were expected to protect it against robbers by their own hands and weapons behind bars and bolts and stanchions of their own houses, brought their spare money to the goldsmiths for specially fortified safe keeping, expecting naturally to have to pay for that accommodation. But as these rich people drew out only what they required for the moment, leaving "a balance" to their credit, the goldsmiths very soon found himself in permanent possession of much more money than he needed to pay out to the owners for their daily needs. By lending this surplus out at interest he could make more profit than by exercising his craft as a goldsmith. So he gave up goldsmithing and became a money lender.

  Later on he made another discovery. He found that if he printed bushels of promissory notes for £100, £10, £5, £1 or what not, his customers would find them much more convenient than bags of gold and silver when they had large sums to carry away or pay in or exchange with one another, and felt sure all the time that they represented gold in his safes. The notes would pass from one hand to another for a long time before they came back to him to be accepted by himself as so much gold. And as they never never all came back in on the same day, and there was always a mass of them floating round, he found that here too he need keep only a percentage in his till of the gold they represented, and could lend out the rest at interest. Here was a second Golconda for him. He had not only discovered the mystery of banking but invented paper money. He had found the philosopher’s stone." 

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George Bernard Shaw

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  The "first rate city address" of Lombard street was named after the Lombards who came from Italy to lend to the King and provide a service to transit money across Europe. Long before they reached England, Lombard Merchants had founded modern banking at the great trade fairs of medieval Europe. They would set up stall on their bancas which is Italian for bench but its corrupted form would enter the English language as 'bank'. They would write out bills of exchange that like bank notes were a promise to pay at a later date, normally at the end of the fair. If for any reason, they could not pay, their bench would be smashed and they would be declared bankrupt. The great banking houses of the Italian Renaissance the Bardi, the Medici, the San Giorgio grew from these humble origins.

  Edward III defaulted on his loans and bankrupted a few of these Italian bankers and English banking did not develop much further for hundreds of years. Until the early seventeenth  century most London merchants deposited their surplus cash in the Royal Mint then located at the Tower of London. Yet in the year of 1640, a series of events trundled into motion that would revolutionize every aspect of life in England including finance. Firstly, Charles I, desperately short of money due to his disputes with Parliament, seized the Mint and stole £200, 000 of deposits. The King turned thief sent commerce into a panic. Many merchants could not pay their debts and those that still had cash began to look for alternative security arrangements. They refused to trust the King with a penny and kept their money at their homes or their shops but then suffered a spate of robberies by apprentices absconding to join Parliament's army.

 A sensible solution was for merchants to place their cash with goldsmiths who kept secure safes. As Charles's dispute with Parliament turned to all out war, country gentlemen followed suit and deposited all their gold valuables. As their traditional crafts were not in demand during wartime, goldsmiths were more than happy to branch into new ventures. The cash left in their hands remained nominally available on call but during wartime nobody did, so it gave them plenty of ready money available to loan. A pamphlet of the day entitled ‘The mystery of the new fashioned goldsmiths or bankers" describes how "every of them that had friends and credit, aspired to this new Mystery to become Bankers or Cashers."

  Two years after Charles had raised the Mint, he fled London and declared war on Parliament that controlled the capital and the Royal Mint. There was a shortage of bullion and a Parliament inexperienced in these matters struck coins that were often mixed in weight. Uneven coins were a perenial problem of the age as many had been clipped by owners keen to keep tiny shavings of gold before they passed the coin on. These variations meant that goldsmiths originally kept customers deposits of coin separate and would have returned the customer the exact same coins with a receipt that could only be cashed by the original depositer. As there were allegations that goldsmiths engaged in clipping, a new fashion developed where goldsmiths weighed money when collected, then pooled it and guaranteed to redeem all deposits in good coin.

  With money safely in their vaults, the most enterprising goldsmiths took the opportunity to offer to transfer payments for their clients, both promissory notes and cheques date to this perid. A cheque is simply a cash receipt made out to a named third party. A promisory note is transferable cash receipt or as the legend says "a promise to pay the bearer". Both of these became popular amongst London merchants as the quality of the coin promised was guaranteed by the word of professional goldsmiths. Notes and cheques also offered better security than gold coin, they would not attract common thieves as they were only of use to merchants.

 Goldsmiths quickly learned to appreciate that the money entrusted to their care would not all be withdrawn simultaneously. As George Bernard Shaw testifies, they began to print excess promissory notes that weren't issued as a receipt for gold coin already deposited but in the expectation that it would be deposited in the future. Bizarrely, they were exchanging a promise for gold that didn't exist for another promise for gold that may or may not exist in the future. Again, this sounds odd but the purpose of this exchange was that one debt was believed to be surer than the other. Goldsmiths could never be entirely certain that their customers would always pay and to compensate for the risk they charged interest. In contrast, the public developed faith in the goldsmiths ability to perform their task, a borrower could always pass on a certificate that stated a goldsmith had promised to pay as everyone knew they had plenty of gold. Goldsmiths were lending their good name or more precisely what the public perceived to be a good name. As the circle of notes expanded, their ability to produce gold for their notes diminished but as long as customers pretended that it did it mattered little whether the gold existed or not. The enterprise was built entirely on the trust of customers accepting the goldsmiths word for as good as gold. This had to be built day by day, long term planning was extremely difficult in such a precarious enterprise. At first goldsmiths lent for a few weeks, then for months and then for years. As their network of customers increased so did the likelyhood that notes would not return quickly so they began to issue notes in amounts way beyond their reserves of gold. Instead, they learned to manage the risk that there would not be a sudden demand for cash, they kept enough at theri shops to meet demand and became known to their customers as the "keepers of running cash".

  They had not only convinced private merchants of the benefits of their new fashion. When Parliament had won the war and Cromwell assumed the title of Lord Protector, he went to leading goldsmiths like Edward Backwell to provide him with funds. After Cromwell's demise and the was monarchy restored, Charles II found they bore no grudges or political prejuduices and contracted similar deals. The new style of doing business had become engrained and royal patronage entrenched it further. However, canny eyes began to notice that the goldsmiths sums did not add up and began to question the sanity of a custom that effectively amounted to large amounts of people all pretending that goldsmiths had vast amounts of gold in vaults when clearly it was not the case. The strange operations of the goldsmith bankers must have been difficult to fathom, merchants may have used them reluctantly but each person who accepted a promissory note implicitly encouraged others to follow suit. Every time anyone did accept, the issuing goldsmith had effectively gained another customer. The logic became self reinforcing, every exchange with notes helped to swell their number but this snowball factor only exasperated the situation and the goldsmiths' critics who had calculated exactly how precarious the enterprise had become. The author of "The mystery of the new fashioned goldsmiths or bankers" was one who expected that the the public would see through the shenanighans and the goldsmiths would soon receive their comeuppance. He asked : “I suppose people will suddenly come to their wits, and begin to examine why a Goldsmith-banker should be better Security than another man, or fitter to be trusted for ten times more than he is worth”

  As the author would have known, there were times when people did 'come to their wits' and examine the security of goldsmiths . In 1667, a large Dutch fleet sailed up the Thames, firing upon the fort at Sheerness, burning English ships and the town of Chatham. Londoners were terrified and those who held goldsmiths notes instantly stopped pretending that the goldsmiths vaults were full of gold and ran to the bank. Samuel Pepys recorded on June 13th 1667 that his clerk "hath been at the banker's, and hath got £500 out of Backewell's hands of his own money; but they are so called upon that they will be all broke, hundreds coming to them for money". After the emergency was over (September 25th), Pepys discussed the success of bankers with his friend Lord Privy-Seale who "did mightily wonder at the reason of the growth of the credit of banquiers, since it is so ordinary a thing for citizens to break, out of knavery". Pepys agrees that it is remarkable but mentions that "to the honour of this City, that I have not heard of one citizen of London broke in all this war, this plague, this fire, and this coming up of the enemy among us"

   The comments again reflect the sense of mystery about the new fashioned goldsmiths and whether it was sensible to believe in imaginary gold. There is definite resentment from Lord Privy-Seale who takes the moral high ground. Aristocrats typically feared the power of lower born men whose sleight of hand appeared to conjure up money from nowhere. To his eye, the goldsmiths were complete fraudsters, it was plain as day that their excess issues of notes promised the same money to more than one customer at the same time. Pepys seems to take a more consolidated and practical view. This new fashioned goldsmithing was a peculiar practice but it oiled the wheels of trade at a time when silver and gold were still in short supply. There were clear social benefits to trade with promissory notes instead of gold. It was after all far simpler for a goldsmith to write out a promissory note than for an explorer to discover a new country and wrench gold from beneath the ground. Ultimately, the moral case is answered by the fact that customers went freely to the goldsmiths and after a while must have had some idea how the goldsmiths operated. After all, the term "running cash" implies that money was being juggled. Old fashioned goldsmiths may have sat over the gold under lock and key but the new fashion was to attempt the difficult task of investing it and making available at the same time. These new fashioned goldsmiths did not charge for services and some began to pay out interest on notes, which suggests that customers knew the risks but accepted the deal on offer. The public may have been confused about the precise operations but the fact that they ran to the goldsmiths so quickly when there was panic shows they knew they were playing a game of musical chairs with their finances.

  As Charles II relied on goldsmiths for finance as much as as any merchant in London, little was done by to regulate the Goldsmiths beyond his belief that the King did not actually have to pay his debts. In 1672, he conveniently remembered that the interest he was being charged was above the limit permitted by his own usury laws. He ordered the Exchequer to stop loan repayments on debts of over a million pounds. It left some of London’s most prominent goldsmiths bankrupt, major lenders like Edward Backwell were owed hundreds of thousand of pounds.  As the King could not pay the goldsmiths, the goldsmiths cound not pay their customers and thousands more were ruined by the crash. The moment of doom appeared to have arrived, a commentator at the time confidently predicted: "I believe it certain that the trade of the bankers is totally destroyed by this accident, for no man will ever hereafter run the like hazards when he shall consider upon what contingency he puts moneys into goldsmiths hands"

  Remarkably quickly, he was proved to be wrong, not even the spectacular crash caused people to come to their wits. Five years after the Stop of the Exchequer, ‘The List of Merchants of London' documented fifty eight Goldsmiths, thirty eight of them in Lombard street, evidence that the trade was in excellent health. Some of these had been clerks to the big names who had gone under. Also in that year, public indignation at a King confiscating his subjects assets and ruining the economy persuaded Charles to grant letters patent to each of the wronged goldsmiths covenanting to pay interest at 6%, although these ceased again in 1683. It may not have made perfect sense to trust goldsmith-bankers for ten times what they were worth or to believe in their imaginary gold but who else could be trusted? Certainly not the King. His attitude to business was that it was there to sporadically looted. In contrast, the new fashioned goldsmiths had the trust of large groups of people, even if their gold was make believe, the trade was real and whilst it grew people could live with the mystery.

The Credit Conundrum



"A person who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he can pay. Like a person with two wooden legs getting another person with two wooden legs, to guarantee that he has got two natural legs. It don't make either of them able to do a walking match."
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Charles Dickens 
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Little Dorrit is a tale of how avarice and financial manipulation can ruin a small man and his family.  William Dorrit, once a successful businessman, has been rotting in the Marshalsea prison for 25 years for non payment of debt.  As its longest serving prisoner, he is pitifully reduced to terming himself "The Father of the Marshalsea" as a ruse to encourage handouts.  His son too is incarcerated in the debtors' prison until a gentleman by the name of Arthur Clenman takes an interest in the family and pays his debt.  Fortunes rise further when Clenman helps the Dorrits to recover an inheritance and secure Wiliam Dorrit's release but fall again after Clenman's bank fails and he falls into debt and into the Marshalsea.
  The BBC's recent adaptation struck a chord with contemporary society.  Thankfully debtors' prisons are a nightmare that belongs to our past but reviewers have been falling over themselves to point out Little Dorrit's continuing relevance. A.S. Byatt said it was a "fable for our times".  A.N Wilson said "If some of you had read Little Dorrit a year ago, you might have thought it was a lurid melodrama: but in the light of what has happened in Wall Street, Iceland, and our own banks, the terrible trail of sadness caused by bad debt seems all too plausible."  Dickens biographer, Robert Douglas-Fairhurst goes further to say that all Dickens's "novels offer us glimpses of a world we think we have lost - a period of swirling fog and flickering gaslamps. But the closer we get to this world, the more we start to recognise: the scramble for credit, financial scandal, panic"
  Money was always one of Dickens's great themes.  In Dombey and Son, the inquisitive Paul Dombey delves deeper into the mystery of money asking "Papa! What’s money?” His father wants to tell him about "circulating-medium, currency, depreciation of currency', paper, bullion, rates of exchange, value of precious metals in the market" but settles for a more prosaic "Gold, and silver, and copper. Guineas, shillings, half-pence. You know what they are?” Paul is not satisfied "Oh yes, I know what they are,' don't mean that, Papa. I mean what's money after all?" then adding "I mean, Papa, what can it do?”  Dombey Senior, a successful businesman, believes money can do almost anything but it dawns on his son that all their money couldn't save his dying mother.  The limitations of money appear more famously in A Christmas Carol, where Scrooge learns that there are still values that cannot be bought and sold. Initially too mean to burn his own coal, he eventually discovers that money means nothing compared to the heart warming sight of the Cratchits enjoying their Christmas  together.  In David Copperfield, Mr Micawber informs us of a blunt reality "if a man had twenty pounds a year, and spent nineteen pounds nineteen shillings and sixpence, he would be happy; but that a shilling spent the other way would make him wretched".  Dickens's father had drummed this lesson into his son as it was never a habit that he could never manage to acquire.  Like Micawber and William Dorrit, John Dickens ended up in a Debtors prison for the want of £40 and 10 shillings.  When he left for the Marshalsea his parting words warned to not expect him back anytime soon.  The son later recalled that "I really believed at the time that they had broken my heart."  Luckily through inherited wealth, the Dickens family fortunes soon rose but their ups and downs had given the young Charles his unique view of both sides of London life.
  These turbulent themes run through Little Dorrit, characters are struck by calamity and prosperity, then discover who they can rely to help them bridge the gap between the two.  The concept of credit and debt features throughout, those words litter the text along with 'duty', 'honour' and 'obligation'.  These apply to friendship as much as business and often the language conflates the two.  Clenman senses that his family owe a debt to the Dorrits after he guesses they have wronged them in the past.  Little Dorrit truly appreciates Clenman's gesture and repays with love by not abandoning him in his hour of need but her father wants him paid off in cold hard cash.  Money is even used as metaphor for the fidelity of friendship when Little Dorrit declares her best friend Maggy as "as trustworthy as the Bank of England".  Maggy is one of the poor of Bleeding Heart Yard, who are permanently in arrears to their landlord.  Pancks, the rent collector, a man who quite readily admits that he lives for his work of getting blood out of a stone, has no patience for bleeding hearts.  He is always the voice of harsh common sense, but there is an irony in many of his words that suggests Dickens understood the conundrum that is credit.  When the residents of bleeding heart yard offer to vouch for each others' debts he dismisses it as "A person, who can’t pay, gets another person who can’t pay, to guarantee that he can pay."
  Pancks constantly ridicules the idea of relying upon other peoples word but later he is swept up by an investment mania for the Merdle Bank.  He sincerely believes that he has researched the matter carefully but actually has only accumulated hearsay that has circulated until it had  appeared to be solid.  The truth is that Mr Merdle, the man of the age, cannot pay his debts any more than the tenants Pancks collects from but his bank prospers as long as an illusion can be maintained that he can.  His reputation grows by recommendation and reference even though "nobody knew with the least precision what Mr Merdle's business was, except that it was to coin money".  Everyone wants his association and is willing to forward him credit in both their admiration and their money.  A newly wealthy William Dorrit is more than happy to not only invest his fortune but also marry his daughter into the Merdle family, Pancks places his meagre savings and fatefully Arthur Clenman follows suit with not only his money but his business partner's too.  The votes of confidence merely encourages Mr Merdle to take more risks until disaster hits his bank and it is revealed that he "was simply the greatest Forger and the greatest Thief that ever cheated the gallows".
  In the early 19th century banks often crashed as they issued credit with no real guarantee they could pay beyond the faith of their customers that this would be the case.  Dickens later featured on a ten pound note that bore the same legend as its predecessors: "I promise to pay the bearer the sum of ten pounds".  In his time that was exactly what bank notes did, they acted as promise for gold coin kept safe in the bank.  Yet as many more notes were issued than there was gold in the bank to redeem them, they were vaults of hope as much as vaults of gold.  After the run on Northern Rock, it is becoming clear that banks still function by offering promises that depend entirely upon customers goodwill.  As Matthew MacFadyen who plays Clenman in the BBC production explained “Little Dorrit is all about money. It's got banks at the brink of a world recession lending money that they don't have to people who can't afford to pay it back."